The climate community increasingly agrees that El Niño conditions are likely to emerge from mid-2026. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center now estimates an ~82% probability of development during May–July 2026, rising to ~96% through the December 2026–February 2027 peak, and the latest WMO update puts the likelihood near 80% for June–August with strong multi-model agreement on Niño 3.4 warming — the ensemble mean trending toward strong-event levels — despite the usual boreal-spring uncertainty. A forecast positive Indian Ocean Dipole, expected to peak alongside El Niño, could further amplify drought and flood teleconnections across Africa, Asia and Latin America. 

ENSO variability influences nearly two-thirds of global croplands and has historically driven drought, flood, heat stress, wildfire risk and yield losses — with cascading health and economic pressures on already-exposed communities. The current lead time is a critical window for CGIAR, NARS and partners to strengthen anticipatory action, advisories and early-response planning before impacts intensify in late 2026 and 2027. CGIAR, along with its centers, the ongoing CGIAR Science Program / Accelerator, and their partners, are in a strong position to help countries improve their readiness at this time. 

The objective is to convene CGIAR Centers, Programs and Accelerators, NARS, NMHSs, regional climate institutions, disaster-management agencies and development partners around a shared reading of the 2026 El Niño outlook, and translate it into coordinated preparedness for crops, livestock, fisheries, water systems, food security and vulnerable communities — establishing the basis for periodic CGIAR risk updates through the event.