Why the 2026 El Niño is critical for South Asia

South Asia is one of the most ENSO-sensitive food-producing regions in the world. The region is home to nearly two billion people, produces close to one-quarter of the world's rice and one-fifth of its wheat, and depends on the south-west monsoon for the bulk of its agricultural water. Historical strong El Niño events — 1997–98, 2002, 2009, 2015–16 and 2023 — have consistently coincided with below-normal south-west monsoon rainfall across large parts of the region, with cascading effects on kharif production, groundwater and reservoir stress, hydropower dispatch, livestock and fisheries productivity, food prices, public health risks and, ultimately, food and nutrition security for the several hundred million people in the region already classified as food-insecure or nutritionally vulnerable.

The 2026 outlook makes these historical patterns immediately consequential. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center places the probability of El Niño development during May to July 2026 in the high 80% range, rising toward the mid-90% range through the peak season. The WMO's most recent Global Seasonal Climate Update converges on the same signal, with strong multi-model agreement on Niño 3.4 warming trending toward strong-event levels. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is forecast to develop alongside the El Niño, which — based on historical analogues — typically amplifies drying in the eastern part of the region while partially offsetting it in the west. The decision windows this forecast bears on are opening now: kharif sowing and variety selection in May to July, reservoir release rules and hydropower dispatch from June onward, livestock feed and fodder planning through the monsoon, drinking-water contingency in vulnerable districts, humanitarian and community-scale pre-positioning ahead of the peak season, and rabi-season groundwater strategy through October.

The South Asia webinar series is jointly organized by IWMI, RIMES, ICIMOD, CEEW, SYLCAN Trust, and the All India Disaster Mitigation Institute (AIDMI), with the support of the CGIAR Programs on Climate Action and Sustainable Farming.

Speakers to be updated shortly